Topic: Where is Global Warming?
Goal: Quantify changes in the energy storage in Earth's largest thermal reservoir, the ocean.
Datasets:
- CERES TOA shortwave and longwave radiation
- Location: /home/jovyan/shared/NASA_Summer_School_2026/global_warming/materials/data/ceres
- ARGO ocean temperature
- Location: /home/jovyan/shared/NASA_Summer_School_2026/global_warming/materials/data/argo
- AMSR-E sea surface temperature
- Location: /home/jovyan/shared/NASA_Summer_School_2026/global_warming/materials/data/amsre
- ECMWF sea surface temperature and air temperature
- Location: /home/jovyan/shared/NASA_Summer_School_2026/global_warming/materials/data/interim
- NOAA NODC Ocean Heat Content Anomaly
- Location: /home/jovyan/shared/NASA_Summer_School_2026/global_warming/materials/data/NODC
- GHRSST Level 4 Sea Surface Temperature
- Location: /home/jovyan/shared/NASA_Summer_School_2026/global_warming/materials/data/AVHRR_OI-NCEI-L4-GLOB-v2.0 and v2.1
- Global Mean Sea Surface Temperature (GMSAT)
- Location: /home/jovyan/shared/NASA_Summer_School_2026/global_warming/materials/data/gmsat
- Sea Surface Height (SSH)
- Location: /home/jovyan/shared/NASA_Summer_School_2026/global_warming/materials/data/SSH
- GRACE/GRACE-FO water/ice mass changes (TELLUS)
- Location: /home/jovyan/shared/NASA_Summer_School_2026/global_warming/materials/data/TELLUS
Scripts and Notebooks:
- Location: /home/jovyan/shared/NASA_Summer_School_2026/global_warming/materials
- 0_Project_Intro.ipynb
- 1a_meet_data_CERES.ipynb
- 1b_meet_data_Argo.ipynb
- 1c_meet_data_sea_level-fixed.ipynb
- 1d_meet_data_grace_lwe.ipynb
- 2_TOA_energy_imbalance.ipynb
- 3_Ocean_Heat_Uptake.ipynb
- 4_Ocean_Heat_Uptake_vs_TOA.ipynb
- 5_Sea_level_budget.ipynb
- 6_Regional_Patterns.ipynb
Geographic foci: mid latitudes (+-60-30), low latitudes (+-30-0)
Introduction: In 2015 the Earth crossed a major global warming milestone: the global mean surface air temperature (GMSAT) was one degree Celsius warmer than the mid-19th century pre-industrial average. Yet, the road to this 1 degree of atmospheric warming was bumpy: the GMSAT anomaly in 2012 was the same as 2002 and 1998. Because the heat capacity of the atmosphere is much smaller relative to the ocean, much of the year-to-year variability in GMSAT is driven by natural temperature variations of the ocean surface. If we really want to see where the excess energy of global warming is going, we need to quantify changes in the energy storage in Earth’s largest thermal reservoir: the ocean.
Questions:
- Global warming is a result of an energy imbalance: more shortwave radiation absorbed at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) than re-emitted longwave and reflected shortwave. Calculate the global net radiative flux imbalance at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) and compare with time series from the latest CERES-EBAF data product. How does this compare with published estimates? How has this number changed through time? Note: when calculating TOA fluxes from gridded fields, account for grid cell area variations with latitude.
- If Earth’s radiative flux imbalance were entirely absorbed in the troposphere (assume the lower 10 km of atmosphere), how fast would the troposphere warm each year on average? How does your predicted temperature change compare to the actual change through time? Note: consider that atmospheric density decreases with height.
- Repeat all parts of question (2) but instead consider distributing the entire radiative flux imbalance into the upper 10 m, 100 m, 700 m, and 2000 m of the global ocean, respectively. Compare the predicted temperature changes of the ocean against observed changes on a global scale. How do the actual warming trends of each of these depth categories compare against your predictions?
- Divide the ocean into 4 basins: Pacific, Indian, Atlantic, and Southern Oceans. Which basins and which depths account for the greatest observed warming?
Topic Scientist: Dr. Ou Wang (ou.wang@jpl.nasa.gov)
Project Server: https://hub.jpl-cmda.org